Dan Mader's Fantasy Football RB Rankings 1st - 12th

Navigating the dynamic landscape of fantasy football requires a keen understanding of player potential and team dynamics. As the 2024 season approaches, the spotlight is on several running backs poised to make significant impacts across various tiers. From established stars like Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor to rising talents such as Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall, each player's situation presents unique opportunities and challenges for fantasy managers. Analyzing their roles within new offensive schemes, their historical performances, and their prospects for the upcoming season provides valuable insight into drafting strategies and roster management. This article delves into the top-tier running backs and evaluates their fantasy outlooks, offering a comprehensive guide for fantasy football enthusiasts seeking to gain a competitive edge.

Tier 1

1.Bijan Robinson RB - ATL (12), +1 vs. ECR 

Bijan Robinson's fantasy potential has taken a promising turn with the appointment of Zac Robinson as the new offensive coordinator. Last season, Bijan finished as the RB9 in total points but slipped to RB17 in points per game, largely due to sharing carries in a committee setup despite his exceptional talent and high draft status. His prowess in the passing game, where he ranked 3rd in targets and led all running backs in routes run, underscored his versatility. However, frustrations mounted as he only commanded 45% of his team's carries and ranked poorly in red zone opportunities, limiting his touchdown output.

With Zac Robinson now in charge, optimism surrounds Bijan's future. Robinson comes from an offensive scheme that heavily featured a workhorse running back in Kyren Williams, who dominated with 74% of the carries, an 11% target share, and an impressive 85% share of carries inside the 5-yard line. This setup suggests that Bijan could see a significant increase in workload and red zone opportunities under Robinson's guidance. If Bijan secures a similar role as Williams did previously, fantasy managers could see him challenge for the RB1 spot overall, potentially rivaling the production of elite backs like Christian McCaffrey. Keeping a close watch on preseason developments and camp reports will be crucial for fantasy owners looking to gauge Bijan Robinson's fantasy outlook heading into the season.

2.Christian McCaffrey RB - SF (9), -1 vs. ECR 

Christian McCaffrey continues to reign as the premier running back in fantasy football, benefiting from an ideal system that maximizes his exceptional skills. In the previous season, McCaffrey once again demonstrated his dominance by finishing over 100 points ahead of the RB2 in fantasy scoring. While there's speculation about potentially lightening his workload through increased involvement of other running backs or a more pass-heavy offensive approach, McCaffrey's efficiency within the system ensures he remains an elite option.

He led the league in evaded tackles, averaged 5.4 yards per carry and 6 yards per touch, and ranked 4th in breakaway run rate. Additionally, he commanded the highest target share among running backs at just over 19%, highlighting his versatility in both rushing and receiving roles. Even with potential adjustments to his workload, McCaffrey's production and skill set position him squarely in contention for the RB1 spot year after year.

3.Breece Hall RB - NYJ (12), +0 vs. ECR 

The Jets have set up Breece Hall to potentially thrive in fantasy football this year by providing him with a clear path to a workhorse role in their backfield. Behind Hall, the depth chart includes Israel Abanikanda, who saw limited playing time, along with mid-Day 3 pick Braelon Allen and late-Day 3 pick Isaiah Davis. With minimal competition for touches, Hall is poised to capitalize on this opportunity. Despite facing adversity, including recovering from an ACL injury two years ago and playing behind one of the NFL's weakest offensive lines last season, Hall still managed to finish as the RB6 on a points-per-game basis in 0.5 PPR leagues.

His ability to perform at an elite RB1 level under such challenging circumstances underscores his talent and resilience. Heading into the 2024 season, barring any setbacks or injuries, Hall appears to be a strong candidate for a first-round pick in fantasy drafts, potentially ranking among the top three running backs. His combination of skill, opportunity, and past production makes him a compelling choice for fantasy managers seeking a reliable and high-impact player in their lineup.

4.Jonathan Taylor RB - IND (14), +1 vs. ECR 

Despite facing controversies and injuries that limited him to just 10 games last season, Jonathan Taylor remained highly productive, finishing as the RB8 in points per game. He was on pace to surpass 1,200 rushing yards and score 12 touchdowns over a full season. As he enters the upcoming season fully healthy and now secured with a new contract, Taylor is poised to return to peak form.

Just a couple of seasons ago, Taylor was the consensus RB1 overall, showcasing his elite talent and ability to dominate games. With a weak depth chart behind him, where Trey Sermon is expected to be the primary backup, Taylor is likely to see a significant workload. This situation sets him up as a top-tier fantasy option heading into the 2024 season, offering both a high floor and tremendous upside for fantasy managers.

Tier 2

5.Saquon Barkley RB - PHI (5), +1 vs. ECR 

Saquon Barkley's 2023 season was a testament to his resilience and ability despite playing on a struggling team with a weak supporting cast. Despite a sharp decline in yards before contact due to poor offensive line play, Barkley managed to maintain strong metrics in areas that reflect his personal performance. His yards after contact per attempt averaged 2.0, his best since 2019, and he recorded a broken tackles per attempt rate of 20.4%, the best since 2020. These statistics suggest that Barkley's individual skill set has not diminished. Heading into a new offense that significantly upgrades his surroundings, Barkley finds himself in a promising situation. Joining an offense that averaged 2.25 yards before contact for their running backs, Barkley now has the opportunity to operate in the most talented and highest-scoring offense of his career. This setup offers him rare potential for fantasy production even at the age of 27.

The main challenge Barkley faces in this new environment is the goal-line opportunities, as Jalen Hurts was highly effective in scoring rushing touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line last season. Despite Barkley scoring only 6 rushing touchdowns last season with a total of 10, he finished as the RB9 in .5PPR formats in 2023. Showcasing his ability to contribute high-end fantasy points without high touchdown totals because of production on the ground and through the air. Overall, as long as Barkley continues to receive a workhorse role and can improve upon his efficiency from the previous year, he remains poised to deliver RB1 fantasy value with the potential for elite production. The transition to a new offensive scheme under Kellen Moore, who may utilize Barkley more effectively in the receiving game, offers additional upside akin to how Christian McCaffrey thrived in a new system in San Francisco.

6.Derrick Henry RB - BAL (14), +2 vs. ECR 

Derrick Henry faced his weakest supporting cast in 2023 since 2019, which contributed to his lowest yards before contact per carry (YBC/CAR) since that time. Despite this, his overall efficiency metrics remain robust. Henry averaged 4.2 yards per carry (Y/CAR), 4.5 yards per touch (Y/TCH), and broke tackles on 12% of his rushing attempts, indicating that he remains highly effective. In the Ravens' offense, the prospect of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry together presents a daunting challenge for defenses, particularly with the threat of run-pass option (RPO) plays. This combination could create significant opportunities, including easy touchdowns in the red zone. What makes this potential pairing intriguing is the rarity of having two exceptional athletes in the backfield simultaneously. The Ravens have historically favored committee approaches under Greg Roman and Todd Monken, but Henry's exceptional ability may prompt a shift toward a more featured role.

Even if Henry were to see a reduced workload typical for players in their 30s, he would still command a substantial share of carries in an offense that ranked 4th in scoring last season. Henry's career has shown resilience against typical age-related trends, which suggests he could continue to excel. As for potential backups, the Ravens lack a clear 1-for-1 replacement for Henry. Justice Hill is the veteran option but hasn't been utilized extensively as an all-purpose back. Keaton Mitchell is recovering from an ACL injury, and while rookie Rasheen Ali brings promise, being a 5th-round pick means he will need to earn trust and opportunities from the coaching staff. In conclusion, Derrick Henry's strong efficiency metrics and potential partnership with Lamar Jackson make him a compelling fantasy asset on what could be the best team of his career. However, his backup situation remains uncertain, highlighting a potential area of risk for fantasy managers.

7.Jahmyr Gibbs RB - DET (5), -3 vs. ECR 

Gibbs demonstrated his potential to be a fantasy star during the latter part of last season, particularly from weeks 7 to 18, where he ranked as the RB4 overall in points per game. Despite starting the season behind David Montgomery, with a 64% to 43% split in snaps favoring Montgomery early on, Gibbs still managed to finish as the RB10 in total points in .5PPR leagues. As the season progressed, particularly from weeks 10 to 18 when both Gibbs and Montgomery shared the field, Gibbs began to assert himself more prominently in the offense. His snap share shifted to 56% compared to Montgomery's 43%, and he closed the gap in carry share to 50% compared to Montgomery's 43%.

In the passing game, Gibbs took a clear lead with a 14% target share versus Montgomery's 5%. Despite Montgomery still seeing more inside-the-5-yard-line touches, Gibbs was competitive with a 37% share compared to Montgomery's 41%. Looking ahead, Gibbs has the potential to reach top-5 RB status even with Montgomery heavily involved in the offense. Their team's physical and balanced offensive approach supports both backs having significant roles, which bodes well for Gibbs' fantasy upside.

Tier 3

8.Travis Etienne Jr. RB - JAC (12), +1 vs. ECR 

Etienne's 2023 season saw him finish as the RB6 on a points per game basis, thanks largely to his bell-cow usage. He ranked 4th in carries and 7th in targets among running backs, showcasing his integral role in the Jaguars' offense. Towards the end of the season, however, his production dipped slightly as he ranked RB15 in points per game from weeks 13 to 18. This decline was influenced by game script issues, as the Jaguars frequently found themselves trailing and unable to sustain a consistent run game. Recent offseason discussions have raised concerns about the coaching staff's interest in involving Tank Bigsby more in the backfield. However, it's important to note that Bigsby will need to earn this role, despite being a third-round draft pick last season.

Etienne's role as the primary back remains secure for now. Efficiency-wise, Etienne's 3.86 yards per carry mark isn't alarming given the context. Despite operating behind one of the league's least effective run-blocking offensive lines (Etienne ranked 44th in run block rates), he excelled in creating yards after contact and evading tackles. His ability to make the most of challenging situations, including facing numerous stuffed runs, underscores his talent and effectiveness in the Jaguars' system. Looking ahead, Etienne's significant workload and skill set in both rushing and receiving make him a strong candidate to remain a top 10 fantasy running back. As long as he maintains his role and the Jaguars' offense improves, he should continue to deliver consistent fantasy production.

9.Kyren Williams RB - LAR (6), -2 vs. ECR 

Kyren Williams had an outstanding season, second only to Christian McCaffrey in fantasy points per game. Despite being undersized at under 200 lbs, Williams dominated in team snap share and opportunity share among running backs. He was given ample high-value opportunities, ranking 4th in red zone touches with 60 and boasting a solid target share of nearly 12%. Williams' impressive volume was matched by his efficiency, demonstrating that he was not merely a volume-dependent player. He ranked 10th in fantasy points per opportunity, averaged 5 yards per carry, and ranked 13th with 5.2 yards per opportunity. Additionally, he ranked 8th in evaded tackles with 61, proving his ability to create yards even in challenging situations.

However, concerns about his durability due to his smaller stature were realized when he missed 5 games last season because of a high ankle sprain. This has fueled discussions about the potential impact of third-round pick Blake Corum, who could see an increased role if Williams were to face similar issues in the future. Overall, Williams' combination of heavy volume and impressive efficiency metrics positions him as a valuable fantasy asset. His ability to produce at a high level makes him a strong candidate for continued success, provided he can stay healthy.

10.Rachaad White RB - TB (11), +2 vs. ECR 

White emerged as a fantasy force last season, finishing as the RB14 on a points-per-game basis. His standout feature was the substantial volume he received, with a 67% carry share and 13% target share, fulfilling the dreams of fantasy owners seeking reliable RB production. Furthermore, he excelled as a pass catcher, leading in catch rate, ranking 13th in yards per route run, 2nd in routes run among RBs, and claiming a 13th position in target share. However, White's drawbacks centered on his efficiency as a runner. He managed only 3.6 yards per carry, placing him 57th, and he ranked 47th in breakaway run rate, indicating a lack of explosiveness.

Despite these inefficiencies, it's unlikely White will lose significant volume. The Buccaneers made minimal moves at the RB position, retaining Chase Edmonds and Sean Tucker while adding only 4th-round pick Bucky Irving. This lack of investment suggests continued confidence in White's workload. Nevertheless, improvement in White's rushing efficiency is crucial to maintaining his workload assurance. With his robust volume and receiving production, White remains poised to sustain low-end RB1 status in fantasy leagues.

11.Josh Jacobs RB - GB (10), +3 vs. ECR 

Jacobs recently inked a substantial 4-year, $48 million deal, which includes a potential out after this season if things don't go well. Despite a downturn in his 2023 performance, marred by various factors including injury and off-field issues, he managed to finish as the RB18 on a points-per-game basis. This underscores his ability to maintain a solid floor even in challenging circumstances. Moving to the Packers represents a significant upgrade for Jacobs. He now joins a team with an improved offensive line and a potent scoring offense, factors that should naturally boost his productivity. At 26 years old, Jacobs is likely still within his prime years, suggesting he has more to offer in terms of production.

A key question revolves around how the Packers will utilize Jacobs. Given his substantial contract, making him one of the highest-paid RBs in the league this year, it's reasonable to expect Green Bay to feature him prominently. Jacobs has a history of handling a high volume of carries, typically commanding between 75% to 80% of his team's rushing attempts when on the field. This contrasts with the split workload seen with Aaron Jones, who hovered around the 50% carry mark. While the Packers did invest draft capital in Marshawn Lloyd, speculation about AJ Dillon potentially shifting to a fullback role suggests Jacobs could maintain a significant role as the primary back. His style as a grinder rather than a speedster aligns well with sustaining effectiveness throughout games. Jacobs has the capability of receiving a similar share as Jones did in the passing game, potentially capturing around 13% of the targets. Overall, Jacobs' value heading into the upcoming season positions him as one of the few remaining potential workhorse RBs in the RB1 tier, making him a valuable asset for fantasy managers seeking reliable production and workload assurance.

12.Rhamondre Stevenson RB - NE (14), +8 vs. ECR 

Rhamondre Stevenson appears to have a promising outlook heading into the upcoming season, especially with the context of his situation. The Patriots have committed significantly to him with a four-year, $36 million contract extension, including substantial guaranteed money and a long-term commitment without an early opt-out clause until 2027. This indicates a strong vote of confidence from the team, suggesting they intend to make him a central piece of their offense. Stevenson's role in New England's system is expected to grow, potentially resembling what Nick Chubb has enjoyed in Cleveland under offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt.

Despite dealing with lower body injuries and a high ankle sprain that ended his 2023 campaign prematurely, Stevenson managed to be fantasy-relevant, finishing as RB29 in points per game in .5PPR formats. His workload, averaging over 17 opportunities per game while sharing touches with Ezekiel Elliott, underscores his fantasy reliability even in a less than ideal situation. Looking ahead, Stevenson's versatility, including his receiving ability, sets him apart and suggests he could provide production akin to Nick Chubb, albeit potentially with added value in the passing game. While the addition of Antonio Gibson might raise concerns about workload distribution, Stevenson's contract extension could be a signal they will prioritize his involvement heavily. With expectations for an improved run scheme and better health, Stevenson is poised to be valued as a solid RB2 in fantasy football for the upcoming season.

In conclusion, the 2024 fantasy football landscape for running backs promises intrigue and potential for both established stars and emerging talents. Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor continue to headline the elite tier, backed by proven track records of dominance and pivotal roles within their respective offenses. Meanwhile, newcomers like Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall stand poised for breakout seasons, buoyed by promising changes in coaching and team dynamics. Whether you're targeting reliability, upside, or value picks, understanding the nuances of each player's situation will be crucial. As drafts unfold and the season progresses, staying informed about preseason developments and adapting strategies accordingly will be key to maximizing fantasy success with these top-tier running backs.