Dan Mader's Fantasy Football WR Rankings 13th - 24th

The landscape of fantasy football wide receivers is as dynamic as ever, with each player's performance shaped by a combination of talent, team dynamics, and quarterback play. As we delve into the rankings of 13th-24th wide receivers for the upcoming season, each player's past achievements and growth potential are scrutinized. From DK Metcalf's ability to overcome quarterback challenges to Cooper Kupp's consistent red zone dominance, these wideouts offer a spectrum of skills and circumstances that fantasy managers must navigate. Understanding their respective teams' statistical nuances and evolving contexts is essential in making informed draft decisions for the 2024 season.

Tier 4

13.DK Metcalf WR - SEA (10), +5 vs. ECR 

Metcalf's performance last season was commendable, considering the challenges posed by the Seahawks' offensive regression, particularly at the quarterback position. Despite these setbacks, Metcalf managed to accumulate over 1,100 yards and 8 touchdowns, finishing just slightly below his ADP as WR16. His metrics, however, were solid rather than elite, largely due to the subpar quarterback play he faced. Metcalf had a meager 57.5% catchable target rate, ranking 95th among receivers. Despite this, his true catch rate was impressive at 95.7%, placing him 10th in the league, showcasing his ability to capitalize on opportunities.

Last season marked Metcalf's lowest target share of his career at 23%, indicating a shift towards relying more on big plays rather than consistent opportunities. His career-high 16.9 yards per reception ranked 6th in the league, underscoring his penchant for explosive plays downfield. With Ryan Grubb now at the helm, bringing experience from an offense that featured a premier perimeter receiver, there is optimism that Metcalf could benefit significantly. If Grubb adopts a similar approach, Metcalf's weekly production could be enhanced. Moreover, improved accuracy from his quarterbacks, particularly Geno Smith, would greatly bolster Metcalf's potential to achieve top-12 upside in fantasy football this upcoming season.

14.Cooper Kupp WR - LAR (6), +7 vs. ECR 

We noted earlier that despite sharing the field with Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp finished as a low-end WR2 last season. Kupp maintained his primary slot role and continued to command significant red zone volume. Despite playing five fewer games than Nacua, Kupp led with 19 red zone targets, ranking 9th in the league in that category. Touchdowns remain a reliable factor in Kupp's fantasy production.

Over the past two seasons, Kupp's health has been a concern, having missed a total of 13 games. Recently turning age 31, there are valid worries about his potential as a high-injury risk player moving forward. Early reports from off-season workouts have been positive for Kupp, but his ability to navigate through training camp without succumbing to soft tissue injuries will be crucial.

15.Mike Evans WR - TB (11), -1 vs. ECR 

Evans emerged as a standout performer last season, benefiting greatly from the unexpected success of Mayfield and the focused target distribution under Canales. With a hefty 25% target share, he and Godwin (24% target share) were the primary recipients in the Buccaneers' passing game. Finishing as the WR8 overall on a points-per-game basis, Evans excelled particularly in air yards and deep targets, showcasing his ability to make big plays consistently. However, with potential regression looming for the offense, particularly in touchdown production, Evans' 13 touchdowns last year might be hard to replicate, especially given his 13th ranking in red zone targets and a high 9.5% touchdown rate.

Nevertheless, Evans' connection with Mayfield on deep balls and the team's commitment to targeting him should remain intact, even as he enters his age 31 season. Historically reliable for 1,000 yards every season, Evans' durability and consistent production make doubting his ability to reach this milestone unwise. In fantasy terms, Evans presents a solid floor as a mid-level WR2, with the potential for a low-end WR1 ceiling depending largely on his touchdown output for the upcoming season.

16.Davante Adams WR - LV (10), -5 vs. ECR 

Davante Adams is a prime example of how volume alone doesn't always translate to fantasy success. Despite receiving a substantial 33% target share with 175 targets, over 100 receptions, and more than 1,100 yards, Adams finished as the WR19 on a points-per-game basis, his lowest mark since early in his career.

The issue wasn't the quantity but rather the quality of his targets. Adams had to contend with the 52nd-ranked target accuracy, which contributed to his low average depth of target (ADOT) at 10.8 yards and his second-lowest yards per target at 6.5. Additionally, Adams fell short of double-digit touchdowns for the first time in four years. Given the uncertain quarterback situation in Las Vegas and Adams approaching the age of 32, there are concerns about his fantasy outlook. Without a clear upgrade at quarterback, I view Adams as a high-end volume-dependent WR2 for the upcoming season.

17.Michael Pittman Jr. WR - IND (14), +3 vs. ECR 

Michael Pittman Jr. has solidified his status with the Indianapolis Colts, signing a lucrative three-year, $70 million contract extension with $46 million guaranteed. Despite facing subpar quarterback play, Pittman showcased his ability as a volume monster, commanding over 150 targets and capturing a significant 31% team target share. His consistent performance translated to finishing as the WR19 in points per game last season. Pittman's role as a steady WR2 is underscored by his elite volume as the Colts' primary receiver. However, his fantasy ceiling is somewhat constrained by his struggle to score more than 6 touchdowns in any season, including just 4 touchdowns despite ranking 9th in red zone targets last year.

18.Jaylen Waddle WR - MIA (6), -1 vs. ECR 

Waddle faced a challenging year, finishing as WR34 for the season and WR23 on a points-per-game basis. Throughout the year, he battled injuries that may have hindered his performance, potentially preventing him from being fully healthy. However, Waddle has shown his potential, particularly in the dynamic offense where he excelled as WR7 in 2022. With his current ADP at WR21, he is now being drafted closer to his floor, presenting a promising value opportunity for the 2024 fantasy season.

Tier 5

19.DJ Moore WR - CHI (7), +0 vs. ECR 

DJ Moore has been a consistent performer despite some quarterback challenges in the past. Last season, he thrived with a 30% target share, finishing as WR10 in points per game. With the addition of Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze to the Bears' receiving corps, there's a valid concern that Moore's target share could decrease. However, Moore's age, new contract, and prime years contrast with Allen's age and Odunze's rookie status, suggesting Moore should still be the clear WR1 in the Bears' plans.

Throughout his career, Moore has rarely finished below WR22, except for his rookie season and a challenging 2022 due to quarterback issues. Comparatively, the Seahawks' wide receiver core maintained a balanced target share last season, with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett each at 22%, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 18%. A similar distribution among Moore, Allen, and Odunze could limit Moore's ceiling but sustain his current value. In conclusion, while Moore's target share may decrease with the Bears' new additions, his consistent performance and role in the offense suggest he remains a solid investment at his current WR2 ADP, especially given his prime age and the team's investment in him.

20.Amari Cooper WR - CLE (10), +3 vs. ECR 

Amari Cooper's consistency and reliability are often overlooked in fantasy football discussions. While he may not generate the highlight-reel plays that some other receivers do, Cooper has consistently delivered as a volume-based possession receiver. This steady performance has contributed to his undervaluation, currently sitting at an ADP of WR27 despite finishing last season as the WR17 on a points-per-game basis.

Even amidst quarterback turmoil with five different starters last year, Cooper remained a reliable target. He is once again poised to lead in targets, typically landing in the 23%-26% range, a typical volume level for a WR2. Cooper's history with Deshaun Watson shows his ability to maintain production even under challenging circumstances, finishing as the WR23 during Watson's starts in 2022. In 2023, Cooper started strong, ranking as the WR18 in points per game over the first three weeks and delivering standout performances with Watson in weeks 9 and 10.

Despite not being flashy, Cooper's steady contributions make him a dependable mid-level WR2, and if the Browns' offense increases its passing volume, Cooper's value could see a further boost, making him a great value pick at his current ADP.

21.Malik Nabers WR - NYG (11), +3 vs. ECR 

Nabers enters the Giants' roster amidst a landscape where he stands out as the most promising fantasy option among their wide receivers. Comparisons with other high first-round rookie WRs since 2020 suggest Nabers could see between 24% to 29% of the team's targets, positioning him in the WR2 tier as a floor.

However, there's debate whether his current WR24 ADP reflects his ceiling, given concerns about the Giants' offensive prowess and quarterback stability under Daniel Jones. Jones's inconsistent play and the team's overall offensive struggles raise doubts about Nabers's ability to capitalize on volume, similar to Garrett Wilson's situation with the Jets. Wilson, despite a 30% target share, faced efficiency issues due to poor quarterback play, highlighting the risk Nabers faces.

One recent comparison stands out though. Jaylen Waddle's rookie year in 2021. Waddle was the best WR on the team, a team that had questions with play calling and at the time questions about whether Tua could be the franchise pre-Mike McDaniel. That year it wasn't pretty, but Waddle secured a 25% target share and WR23 points-per-game production. This context paints a similar picture to what we could watch Nabers achieve as a floor this season.

22.Brandon Aiyuk WR - SF (9), -9 vs. ECR 

An argument can indeed be made that Aiyuk was one of the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL last year. He ranked 2nd in EPA (Expected Points Added), 5th in fantasy points per route run, and 3rd in yards per route run, impressive metrics that underscore his effectiveness on the field. This elite efficiency allowed Aiyuk to finish as the WR14 on a mere 105 targets.

However, sustaining elite-level efficiency year over year is challenging, and it's reasonable to expect some regression in Aiyuk's efficiency metrics. Without an increase in volume, it may prove difficult to accumulate enough fantasy points to achieve the value of his ADP of WR13.

23.Terry McLaurin WR - WAS (14), +8 vs. ECR 

Terry McLaurin has been the unsung hero in Washington, consistently performing at a high level despite inconsistent quarterback play. Last season, playing with Sam Howell, McLaurin saw a dip in production, finishing as WR42 in .5PPR formats, marking his worst fantasy season to date. The primary issue was Howell's inability to connect on deep passes, ranking 32nd in deep ball completion percentage, which significantly impacted McLaurin's yards per target (7.6), touchdown rate (3%), and catch rate (59.8%).

The positive outlook comes with the arrival of Jayden Daniels, whose college career showcased a knack for deep ball accuracy, ranking as the fourth most productive deep ball quarterback last year. This change suggests McLaurin will benefit from improved downfield passing and enhanced offensive efficiency. Comparatively, under Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona, DeAndre Hopkins achieved WR8 overall on a points-per-game basis with a similar style QB.

McLaurin's current value in fantasy drafts as a mid-level WR3 is reflecting more of his floor than his ceiling given the upgrades at quarterback and offensive coordinator. With Daniels' ability to stretch the field and McLaurin's established talent, there's optimism for a bounce-back season that could elevate McLaurin back into higher fantasy WR tiers.

Tier 6

24.DeVonta Smith WR - PHI (5), -2 vs. ECR 

The target share dynamics between DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown have consistently favored Brown by a slight margin. In 2022, Brown commanded a 28% team target share compared to Smith's 27%. This trend continued in 2023, with Brown's share increasing to 30% while Smith's regressed to 24%. This distribution suggests that as long as Brown remains healthy, Smith's potential ceiling may be limited.

However, this doesn't diminish Smith's appeal as a fantasy asset. With an ADP of WR22, Smith is being valued correctly.

The continuity in personnel, even with a coaching change, suggests that the target distribution will likely remain concentrated around Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert in the upcoming season. This stability in role and opportunity should continue to solidify Smith's role in the Eagles' passing game, making him a steady option with potential for fantasy production.

In conclusion, wide receivers in this article present a blend of proven consistency and tantalizing upside for the upcoming fantasy football season. Whether it's DK Metcalf poised to benefit from a revamped offensive strategy in Seattle or the ever-reliable Cooper Kupp continuing to excel in the Rams' offense, each player brings unique attributes to the table. Fantasy managers should weigh factors such as quarterback stability, target share, and red zone opportunities carefully when drafting from this tier. By doing so, they can leverage the potential of these wide receivers to maximize their fantasy roster's success in the competitive landscape of the 2024 season.