Week 1 Fantasy and Betting Preview: Ravens vs. Chiefs Showdown

Thursday, September 5, 2024

As the NFL season kicks off, the Baltimore Ravens head to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs in what promises to be a thrilling Thursday night opener. This article will break down key players, fantasy rankings, and prop bets to consider for this matchup. All Props are based on Underdog Fantasy Pick Ems.

Baltimore Ravens

QB Lamar Jackson (RK QB4):

   Props: 220.5 passing yards, 50.5 rushing yards, 1.5 passing TDs (juiced to 1.16 over), 8.5 rushing attempts (juiced to 1.05 over), 31.5 pass attempts.  

   Matchup: The Chiefs were solid against QBs last season, allowing the 8th fewest fantasy points. However, with losses in their secondary like L'Jarius Sneed, the Chiefs' defense may not be as formidable. Not to mention the struggles the defense had vs. mobile QBs allowing the 10th most rushing yards. Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability (51 rushing yards per game last season) remains his fantasy floor, making the 50.5 rushing yards prop a juicy over bet. Adding Derrick Henry to the RPO mix should only enhance Jackson's effectiveness.

RB Derrick Henry (RK RB7):

   Props: 0.5 rushing/receiving TDs, 67.5 rushing yards, 16 rushing attempts, 1.5 receptions (juiced to 1.16), 7.5 receiving yards.  

   Matchup: Henry’s efficiency should improve with Jackson’s threat on the ground and an upgraded offensive line. The Chiefs were middle-of-the-pack in rushing yards allowed (15th) but were tough against RBs in fantasy points allowed (9th). Despite this, Henry has averaged 111 rushing yards and scored 7 total TDs in four career games against Kansas City. He’s a solid RB1 this week, and the over on his TD prop is appealing.

WR Zay Flowers (RK WR31):

   Props: 0.5 TDs (juiced to 1.54 over), 51.5 receiving yards.  

   Matchup: Flowers faces a tough matchup against a Chiefs defense that ranked 2nd against WRs in fantasy points allowed last season. With Sneed out, Flowers will often see Trent McDuffie, who is no easy target. However, Flowers’ 24% target share from last year and his role in the slot (31% of routes) keep him as a viable flex option, albeit with a capped ceiling.

WR Rashod Bateman (RK WR70):

   Props: Not listed.  

   Matchup: Bateman’s role remains uncertain, and his ranking reflects his volatility. Keep him on the bench for this one.

TE Mark Andrews (RK TE5):

   Props: 0.5 TDs (juiced to 1.5 over), 4.5 receptions, 49.5 receiving yards.  

   Matchup: The Chiefs were 7th best against TEs in fantasy points allowed last season. Andrews, returning from an off-season car accident, may not be at peak form. While always a top-5 TE when healthy, this week’s matchup doesn’t scream TE1 overall performance.

TE Isaiah Likely (RK TE24):  

   Props: 0.5 TDs (juiced to 3.76 over), 1.5 receptions, 18.5 receiving yards.  

   Matchup: Likely’s fantasy relevance depends on whether the Ravens commit to using more 12 personnel. For now, he’s a stash candidate rather than a start.

Kansas City Chiefs

Injury Report

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown - Shoulder Out

QB Patrick Mahomes (RK QB3): 

   Props: 1.5 passing TDs, 264.5 passing yards, 20.5 rushing yards, 47.5 pass attempts.  

   Matchup: The Ravens' defense was stout against QBs last season, ranking 3rd in fantasy points allowed. However, with the loss of key defenders like Patrick Queen and defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald, regression is possible. Regardless, Mahomes has a history of dominating the Ravens, averaging 369 passing yards and 3 TDs in four career regular season games against them. Bet the over on his passing yards and TD props.

RB Isiah Pacheco (RK RB22): 

   Props: 0.5 TDs (juiced to 1.05 over), 14.5 rushing attempts, 2.5 receptions, 14.5 receiving yards.  

   Matchup: Pacheco’s workload could be impacted by Samaje Perine, who may take over long down-and-distance plays. Last season Pacheco played only 13% of the team snaps in this situation while Perine played on 67% of snaps for Denver. Perhaps Perine is not quite enthralled into the offense enough just yet to see that kind of impact but we will be watching closely. The Ravens were a top-12 defense against RBs last season, making this a tough matchup. Pacheco remains a low-end RB2 with limited upside in this game.

WR Rashee Rice (RK WR25)Props: 0.5 TDs (juiced to 1.25 over), 5.5 receptions, 59.5 receiving yards.

Matchup: The Ravens’ defense ranked 8th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers last season. Rashee Rice’s versatility, playing both in the slot and out wide at an equal 49.4%, should help him find favorable matchups. Despite a tough off-season, Rice remains a high-end WR3 with flex appeal, though attacking his props might be risky.

WR Xavier Worthy (RK WR40)

Props: 0.5 TDs (juiced to 1.32 over), 3.5 receptions, 46.5 receiving yards.

Matchup: Rookie Xavier Worthy is set to be the Chiefs' second starting receiver, but Andy Reid has historically been slow to rely on rookies. Worthy is a boom-or-bust play, and his $8,700 DraftKings DFS price tag makes him an interesting option in daily fantasy. He’s ranked as WR40 for Week 1, but if you believe in early volume for Worthy you may want to think about parlaying his receptions and yards props, though it's not my recommendation. 

TE Travis Kelce (RK TE1)

Props: 0.5 TDs, 6 receptions, 60.5 receiving yards.

Matchup: As long as Travis Kelce is healthy, he remains the top-ranked tight end, regardless of matchup. The Ravens’ defense was tough against tight ends last season (8th in fantasy points allowed), but with safety Kyle Hamilton potentially less than 100%, Kelce should still be a prime target for Mahomes. The last time these two teams faced off in the regular season back in 2021, Kelce went over 100 yards and a score. Bet on the over for his touchdown prop as he is likely to be the recipient of at least one of Mahomes's 3 passing TD average vs the Ravens.

Game Information 

Time: 8:20 PM ET

Channel: NBC

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Line: Kansas City -3

Over/Under: 46.5

Fantasy and Betting Summary: The Ravens vs. Chiefs showdown features intriguing fantasy options and betting props. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry offer strong opportunities to exceed their rushing props, while Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are safe bets for their respective overs. Meanwhile, both teams’ wide receivers face tougher matchups, making them more risky plays. Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup or placing a bet, Week 1 kicks off with plenty of excitement and potential.