Week 1 NFL DFS Picks & Lineup Advice (2024)

Just think, in a few days your life heads back to that happy place. That time frame where bliss, frustration, anxiety and excitement combine into one gigantic burrito of emotion. It’s a special time of year, and no, I’m not talking about your kids heading back to school. It’s football time, baby! The time when people all over the globe wake up on a Sunday morning with one thing on their mind: “Who the hell am I going to start in my NFL DFS lineup?”

Well, fear not! I am here to help in that category of your Sunday morning. No, I can’t cook your breakfast for you, get your smoker fired up, or get your beer on ice. Basically, what I can do for you is something much more important. Ultimately, I can give you the best advice to my knowledge on whom you should be playing in DFS lineups. Overall I see that as a major victory, and a way to help you make some money playing a game that you love.

Every week, I aim to give you one player from each position in NFL DFS that I feel is the best option to help you win. But we will almost always focus on that main slate of Sunday games. The island games (Thursday/Monday) will not have players featured. Basically, this is to avoid confusion and ensure we focus on the main slate of games that most contests tend to feature.

(NFL DFS prices are courtesy of DraftKings)

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Week 1 NFL DFS Picks & Lineup Advice (2024)

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) | $7,000

I threw around Tua Tagovailoa‘s name for about 20 minutes with Josh Allen‘s when I ran the numbers. Overall, they both have beautiful matchups for NFL DFS and fantasy football. But what helped me fully commit to the Dolphins’ quarterback is the pricing. Instead, Tagovailoa comes in $1,000 cheaper than Allen, giving you more money to spend elsewhere on your lineup. Ultimately, I looked at two major components in my decision process.

First, the former Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback plays the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were more than giving last season to fantasy football quarterbacks. Last season, the Jaguars allowed quarterbacks to score an average of 19.9 points per game. That number was the fourth-most allowed in the NFL for the 2023 season. Secondly, the total for this game is the highest in the main slate at a whopping 49.5 points. Additionally, the Dolphins are favored by three points, giving them an implied point total of 26.5. That’s, at a minimum, three projected touchdowns coming their way.

Certainly, some will argue that the Dolphins’ backfield is also a great play solely on the logic of the total and implied point total. Sure, I can understand that. But I like Tagovailoa’s odds of scoring more than the running backs because the Jaguars were decent against opposing RBs last season. The Jaguars allowed 19.6 NFL DFS points per game to backs; that’s about the middle of the road. Also, Tyreek Hill has an extremely favorable matchup against a Jaguars secondary that loves to let you get behind them. The “Cheetah” will run on Sunday, and his quarterback will be ready to get him the ball.

Running Back

Kenneth Walker III (Seattle Seahawks) | $6,100

Somewhere in the offseason shuffle, Kenneth Walker III’s name just disappeared in the fantasy world. The chatter has been minimal on him; overall, I don’t understand it. But that ends now. Walker III’s matchup this week in NFL DFS and fantasy football is a lot of fun and my pick to help build your squad. The Michigan State product takes on the Denver Broncos at home in front of the 12th man for the home opener.

Despite not being talked about (which I like), Walker III takes on a defense that allowed a promising 24.1 NFL DFS points per game to fantasy backs in 2023. Coupled with being at home and favored by six, I really like this pick. Generally, if a team is favored and ahead at the end of the game, they will run the ball. That’s Walker III’s territory, and he will just keep racking up points as the clock runs down. The total sits at 42 – nothing really to brag about. But in those lower-scoring affairs, we see the running backs scoring fantasy points regardless.

Equally important, the Denver Broncos’ secondary was stout against pass-catchers last season. Overall, they only allowed 26.1 points a game to them, ranking them as the 12th-toughest matchup. This makes me think that Seattle will lean on the run, especially if they catch an early lead against the rookie quarterback Bo Nix.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | $7,300

You’re looking at the price tag for Mike Evans, and I know what you’re thinking. He’s expensive, and I totally understand that. What we’re trying to do here is give you a player that is a fantastic play for you to build a lineup around. You’ll have to spend up on Evans this week. In fact, he’s the sixth-most expensive wideout on the slate this week. But I can assure you it’s for good reason.

Evans takes on the Washington Commanders, who were the second-most giving to fantasy wide receivers last season. During that tenure, they allowed receivers to score a collective amount of 36.3 NFL DFS points per game in 2023. Overall, that is an insane number of points to give up on a per-game basis to one position. Evans is no slouch either, so it’s not like I’m saying this about the likes of someone with the name of, oh, I don’t know, Quentin Johnston. Evans is a future Hall-of-Famer and may start off hot in 2024.

Given that, there’s even more information to pair it nicely with. Via Pro Football Focus (PFF), Evans has the third-best wide receiver/cornerback matchup on the week, just behind Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua. Don’t you think the coach and team know that, too? They’ll be targeting him, and guess who will benefit? You, you’ll benefit from it.

But wait, there’s more! Baker Mayfield should also benefit against the Commanders’ defense, ultimately benefiting Evans. The Commanders allowed the single-most points to fantasy quarterbacks last season with 21.2 points per game. Side note: I also love Mayfield in NFL DFS this week, and he’s much cheaper at $5,600 if you don’t want to spend up on Tagovailoa.

What are you going to do with all of that information? Hopefully, plugging Mike Evans into your NFL DFS lineup.

Tight End

Evan Engram (Jacksonville Jaguars) | $5,500

There’s something about starting a solid tight end in DFS that can make a massive difference. Yes, you want to start players who are scoring a high amount of points, but you also want to be sure you’re not starting all the same players as the entire field. So, you’re looking at a player that scores top points and provides leverage. That’s what makes tight ends great in the NFL DFS, in my opinion. Eveyone will start either Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, George Kittle or Sam LaPorta. Why not throw out a cheaper option that has the ability to do nearly the same thing and better at times? That’s Evan Engram this week.

It sounds wild, but Engram finished the season last year as the Points Per Reception (PPR) TE6. I look at Engram and say, “There’s no reason why he can’t repeat last season to a certain extent.” This week is the prime opportunity to kick it off right. Engram has the fifth-best matchup in fantasy football for tight ends facing the Miami defense. They offered up 10.6 points per game to the tight end position last season. It should also be noted Engram is the fifth-most expensive tight end on the main slate behind Trey McBride, T.J. Hockenson (who is on the PUP list and is out), Dalton Kincaid and David Njoku. Those players all have far worse matchups this week, so it makes sense to play Engram.

Again, the total is a beautiful thing at 49.5 points. You know damn well that the Dolphins will come out swinging, and the only way the Jaguars will be able to keep up is if they’re throwing the ball. Who will get the majority of the targets and catches? Well, if I were a betting man, I’d put it on the tight end who had 143 targets and turned them into 114 receptions last season. That would be the seven-year veteran.

Defense/Special Teams

Cincinnati Bengals D/ST | $3,800

Let’s be honest here, the first week of the NFL is wild and sometimes a crap shoot. You have your thoughts and ideas of what defense from last season can return in the same form. But a lot of times, these rosters turnover. So, I’m strictly looking at defenses with an easier opponent this first week.

Bring in the Cincinnati Bengals, who take on an abysmal Patriots team. I don’t know if you watched any preseason games, but that New England offensive line was like Swiss cheese. I expect the Bengals pass rushers to be on Jacoby Brissett early and often. This game’s total is also tied for the lowest on the main slate at 40.5, meaning a likely struggle for the offenses. You might even get lucky and find a cornerback taking one of Brissett’s passes to the house in the opposite direction.

Check out all of our content for Week 1 of the fantasy football season:

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS picks for Week 1 of the 2024 football season! Check out more of our fantasy football and other written content here at In-Between Media, or head over to our YouTube channel to get your fix via video. Be sure to also follow me on Twitter @snag1025 for more content.

*Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove – USA TODAY Sports*

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