Jack Lucenay

Where, oh where, have all the fantasy points gone? The lamentation and frustration of Fantasy Football players has been heard loudly through two weeks of the NFL regular season, as we have seen historic lows in scoring. Myriad factors affect the modern day NFL product, but perhaps none are depressing the value of our favorite fantasy football players more than the new NFL kickoff rules. That’s right, the rules intended to increase scoring, while protecting the players, are having the opposite effect on the scoreboard. The new kickoff rules are merely the first domino, cascading into toppling the facet of the game that actually matters to us, offense. @The_Coach_A (Cody Alexander) has a great thread in response to @MikeClayNFL about the offensive and defensive adjustments being made this year. It begs the question as to why? I believe NFL defenses had already begun adapting to the modern NFL rules in regards to tackling. However, I believe this has now been exacerbated due to the shortened fields occurring more frequently because of the new kickoff rule.

Let’s start with the most obvious. The way the new NFL kickoff rules affect special teams is the biggest change overall. Not only are we seeing teams employ different personnel than they may have in the past, we’re seeing the team kicking the ball away more routinely take the touchback kick. This results in the offense starting from the 30 yard line. It also negates the possibility of a penalty. Where teams were once starting from between the 10-20 yard line, they are now guaranteed to start at the 30 more often than not. The new rules also facilitate kickoffs for many teams when they do happen, meaning teams are actually starting even further down the field when they have successfully returned a kick for yards. Further compounding a lack of offense is a historical rate of long field goal attempts, as this has become a skill possessed by many NFL kickers. It is not abnormal to see even average NFL kickers attempting 50 yard field goals in today’s NFL.

NFL defenses had already begun adapting to modern play last season, as NFL scoring had already taken a hit in 2023. This is because today’s NFL defenses have realized that it’s all about covering the big plays. As long as you keep the field in front of you, you force NFL quarterbacks to read through their progressions and take smart plays as opposed to open shots downfield. This has been compounded even further this year by the shortened fields NFL teams are playing on. If you’re already starting at the 30-50 yard line, you bet you are covering your endzone by playing variations of Cover 2 or Shell coverages. What this means basically is having two safeties deep, not just one. Teams are playing these safeties deep and bracketing coverage either with underneath zone concepts or man coverage. Only the New York Giants, in the history of the NFL, have managed to lose a football game while scoring three touchdowns more than their opponent. They pulled off this nefarious accomplishment this year, in part because of what we saw in the previous paragraph. It is easier than ever to kick field goals in today’s NFL. It's also because this adaptive style of bend-but-don't-break defense is susceptible to allowing 18-21 points still if they're allowing 6-7 field goals in a game.

Finally, we are seeing the offenses adapt to the new kickoff rules as well. Shortened fields are enticing coaches to run the football more, because it doesn’t take much to position your team for at least 3 points. There are fewer explosive plays, because NFL defenses are less willing to take risks by employing heavy blitz packages when they feel the endzone is closer behind them. Where you once could win the field position battle by playing excellent defense and forcing a team to punt from inside their own 10 yard line, the new kickoff rules make this an almost antiquated concept. Even if you are able to sack the quarterback multiple times, you’re likely not forcing the team to punt from inside of their own endzone. In the past, this short punts, muffed punts or blocked punts, as the punter and special teams simply had less space to operate. What this means for fantasy football scoring is that more than ever, we will need to rely on touchdowns. We are likely to continue seeing less passing attempts on average due to shortened games caused by more rushing attempts, but also less cheap yards due to playing on shortened fields. Unfortunately, touchdowns are perhaps the most fickle and least predictable stat in all of fantasy football.

In conclusion, the domino effect of the new NFL kickoff rules is ruining scoring for fantasy football. Shortened fields mean less yards and more conservative defenses leading to less explosive plays. This also begets a stronger use of the running game as shortened fields mean it is easier to position your team for long field goals, which have become the norm in today’s modern NFL. This in turn literally can make games shorter and give teams less opportunities to make plays. Finally, we’ve seen an erasure of the field position game, as shortened fields mean teams are far less likely to ever find themselves punting from inside their own endzone. This means NFL defenses are less likely to send blitz packages that make them susceptible to a broken play, as there is no upside like there was when you could potentially pin your opponent down inside their own 10 yard line. It remains to be seen if NFL offenses will be able to adapt to the changes this year, or if perhaps we as a fantasy football community will need to adapt on the fly.

It has only been two weeks of NFL Football, so it may be foolhardy to be so reactionary. However, he who laughs last in fantasy football, looks like an insane man laughing in a room with no viable moves left to make. The early bird gets the worm in this case, but enough with the Mother Goose niceties - let’s examine the teams we are DONE with after only two weeks for fantasy football.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Predictably, the Pittsburgh Steelers offense has become based around the power running of Najee Harris, who has 37 carries through 2 weeks. Najee is a legitimate trade target in this offense as he routinely gains steam as the season wears on and is already getting massive volume shares, even if he’s technically splitting snaps with Jaylen Warren. Jaylen Warren is a nice feature of our offense, but is not relevant except as a deep flex play. If you can still scavenge value by packaging Jaylen Warren with a woeful wide receiver to upgrade running backs, I would definitely make that move. George Pickens is a tremendous player, but will not see consistent enough value to return on his promise for fantasy football. The same can be said for Pat Freirmuth, who, after we joked about it all summer, actually did see the touchdown play go to fellow tight end and mountain of a man, Darnell Washington. The Muth can be cut looth by serious contenders, either as trade bait for tight end needy teams, or as a cut candidate in shallow leagues. Basically, when it comes to this team, I’m willing to hold the two running backs, Najee Harris and Justin Fields. I would be trying to sell high on George Pickens. That is all.

Denver Broncos - Technically, this team should have been first as the Denver Broncos are the worst assets to own in all of fantasy football. I’m biased as a Steelers fan. Genuinely, whatever you can get for Javonta Williams, Courtland Sutton or any other Denver Broncos player, take it. I would trade them for a wet hot dog right now. What is a wet hot dog? Don’t ask…

Los Angeles Rams - The Rams are the guy in all your fantasy leagues bemoaning that his entire lineup has been wiped out by injuries. They had already lost Puka Nacua to IR and now Cooper Kupp seems likely to miss several weeks. The wide receiver room here is going to consist of some walk-ons and longtime fill-ins. First, participating in a Robert Woods look-a-like contest we have Tyler Johnson. Jordan Whittington was a preseason darling who until now couldn’t crack the starting lineup. Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell fill a similar role and have been longtime complimentary pieces for the Rams and will be worth owning in deep leagues, but neither of them saw more than 4 targets against a soft Arizona Cardinals defense. That’s because the Rams are also missing at least four of their five starting offensive linemen and are dealing with a litany of other injuries. As bad as they look right now, I believe Sean McVay can scheme some things up and will end up leaning heavily on his running backs, primarily Kyren Williams. If you can scoop Blake Corum off waivers and make a trade for Kyren, that could be a league winning move when you look back on this early portion of the season. Also, for what it’s worth, I would hold on to Colby Parkinson. He could definitely see yet another uptick in cheap targets as part of the game plan sans Puka and Kupp. It was a rough week against the Cardinals, but the tight end landscape is abysmal, so I would just keep him for now.

Tennessee Titans - Will Levis must be a distant relative of Thanos in some alternate universe. He is inevitable. For as tremendous as he is as an athlete, Levis will inevitably leave you scratching your head as he makes some mind-bending decision that ends up costing his team the game. It’s like a bad parody of the Matrix. There is no spoon. I digress… The Titans do have a couple things going for them, namely a trio of competent wide receivers, a passable tight end target and an excellent running back in one Tony Pollard. If you can somehow loosen Tony Pollard from the steely grips of his managers, it is worth the attempt. Calvin Ridley will have disappearing acts, but he will also have monster games such as he had this week. Regardless of his flaws, Will Levis does not fear the deep ball. However, I am actively shopping Ridley off the back of this good week, as he will definitely be a roller coaster player and I am trying to trade down into a more consistent asset. There is a chance Levis can still turn this thing around, but it doesn’t seem likely.

Chicago Bears - Yeah, we get it. The NFL has grown men playing to feed their families and the college game is different. NFL and fantasy football analysts have breathlessly brought up this talking point that I brought up pre-draft as concerns for Caleb Williams going number one overall. My other concern was the Chicago Bears stubborn nature of keeping the existing coaching staff on that one season too long, namely the rookie season of your potentially generational quarterback. As we’ve seen with the Carolina Panthers and Bryce Young, the Bears are potentially playing a dangerous game here. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron seems incapable of getting this offense going and the players seem generally frustrated. DJ Moore especially looked dejected during their Sunday Night Football matchup against the Houston Texans, who by contrast have done wonders with their young franchise quarterback in CJ Stroud. While I do project this team to get better in the second half of the season, if you are suffering an 0-2 start or a particularly bad string of injuries, I would aggressively shop DJ Moore and D’Andre Swift while they still have most of their value. By the time this offense finally starts clicking, it may not matter for your fantasy football team.

Carolina Panthers - HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Ok, now that we got that out of the way, it’s crazy to think that the solution to the Carolina Panthers offense is likely their longtime backup and former starter, Andy Dalton. I think Dalton will be effective in running Dave Canales’ system and reviving the fantasy football worth of not just Diontae Johnson, but also Adam Thielen. If Thielen has made it to waivers, I would be aggressively targeting him given the slew of injuries at wide receiver. Thielen was running wide open on a route where Bryce Young couldn’t even conceive of making that read. Andy Dalton will make that play all day. Speaking of Dalton, I am making heavy waiver wire claims on him also, especially in my Super Flex leagues where I’m dealing with injuries or myopic play from the quarterbacks. I do think Diontae Johnson will see more serviceable games now, but Thielen is the cheaper option and trade target for me. As far as the rest of this team, I need to see how the running back snap shares break down with Dalton under center, as so far Miles Sanders has led the way and done absolutely nothing with it. None of them are even worth rostering at this point, but maybe that changes under the Red Rifle. Hope springs eternal with grandpa Dalton at the helm for the Carolina Panthers, but otherwise, I’m still mostly done with this team for fantasy football.

For months now, fantasy football fans have been burning up the best ball drafts and dynasty startup drafts for their fantasy football leagues and for all that time, there have been pretty much two names at the top of the draft board. Christian McCaffrey and Ceedee Lamb have reigned supreme as the de facto 1.01 selections depending on league format for the better part of the offseason. However, Ceedee Lamb has recently turned down his latest contract offer and CMC is dealing with a minor calf injury coming off of a 400 touch season. This begs the question, who should be the consensus 1.01 in upcoming Redraft Fantasy Football Leagues?

The Chalk Pick - Tyreek Hill

For as much as I believe in the talent of Tyreek Hill, I also never believed he’d be ready to retire when he said. Tyreek now has a new contract and is returning to arguably an even better situation than last season. The Miami Dolphins are set to return with Tua Tagovaiola and Mike McDaniels at the helm as quarterback and head coach respectively. They’ve added depth pieces in Jaylen Wright and Malik Washington. I see no reason Tyreek Hill can’t repeat what is normally an outlier season for most wide receivers, hitting the 1800 yard plateau in back to back seasons. I rarely believe in setting such lofty projections, but the Cheetah has proven unstoppable and I don’t see that changing this season.

My Favorite Pick - Bijan Robinson

What a difference a season makes. Last year, I was out on Bijan Robinson at his average draft price, as I expected him to have a good but not generational rookie season under former Head Coach Arthur Smith. Generally speaking, targeting young, ascending, talented running backs in their sophomore season is always a good idea. When it comes to Bijan though, rarely have the stars aligned for him to have a true fantasy breaking season such as the hiring of three quarters of the Rams coaching staff, led by Raheem Morris, as well as an upgrade at quarterback in Kirko Chains (Kirk Cousins). Add in the fact that the Atlanta Falcons have one of the best schedules per Warren Sharp Analytics and there’s a strong case to be made that Bijan Robinson could be the 1.01 in ANY fantasy football format.

The Dark Horse - Breece Hall

Everything I said about Bijan Robinson is also true of Breece Hall. Assuming the health of Aaron Rodgers, Breece Hall enters an improved version of the same situation he was in last year, when he presented as a fantasy gamebreaker down the stretch of the season. Barring health issues, of which the Jets seem accursed, there’s no reason Breece Hall can’t compete for the RB1 position in fantasy football. Similarly to Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall also presents as a pass catching option with the ability to have a fantasy breaking type season. I think the only argument that can be made against Breece is the looming bad omens of the Jets’ history.

Mr. Consistency - Amon Ra St. Brown

Shoutout to @JCMoneyDesign of the Sports Affiliation. We recently held a Mock Draft episode together and I asked JC who he would consider as a 1.01 in redraft. He surprised me when he said Amon Ra St. Brown. As much as I love the Sun God, I admittedly view him as an elite, consistent wide receiver but a slight tier down from Tyreek Hill, Ceedee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson when all things are square. However, the Detroit Lions are still a young ascending team. It would be foolish to think it impossible for Amon Ra St Brown to continue evolving. He is capable of a monstrous receiving season, especially since the Detroit Lions have a tremendous schedule that features a dozen inside dome games. 

Do Not Overlook - AJ Brown

Although the entire Philadelphia Eagles team cratered towards the end of last season, AJ Brown’s end of season was still better than you remember. What if I told you that through the final 5 games of the fantasy football season, AJ Brown saw 53 targets for 32 receptions and 397 yards. What went away was the touchdowns and the efficiency from the first half of the season. Even still, AJ Brown has finished with back to back seasons with just under 1500 yards and a combined 18 touchdowns. He is the dominant wide receiver for the Philadelphia Eagles and an argument can be made that Jalen Hurts is still ascending as a natural passer of the football at the quarterback position. With new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore in town, it will be interesting to see if Hurts and in turn AJ Brown can take a step forward, enough for Brown to crack firmly into the top 3 fantasy football wide receiver producers.