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I don't see ANY adp smashes here. They're all being drafted at their ceilings. The sneaky bonanza, if any, is probably Mixon. He can be this year's Mostert ... scoring a lot of RZ TDs ... as defenses have to account for three OTHER great weapons. But, even so, Mixon going where he is ... is a steep price to pay, yet, almost a ransom that must be paid ... if starting with two WRs.
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I know I shouldn't let it affect me, Dan ... but I drafted Lawrence and Ridley last year ... and they sucked. So, I've been ignoring T L this year. You truly believe he is a 25 points a week guy this year ??? A quality QB1 ??? I admit, his ADP is a great bargain, but, the sour taste is skewing me, here. When we have Kirky and A.R. in the same range ... hhhmmmmmmm ???
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It was disappointing for fantasy owners who drafted Lawrence expecting a breakout, only to see him finish as QB17 on a points-per-game basis last season. However, this downturn has positioned Lawrence as a potential sleeper candidate this year, valued closer to his floor.
Despite the underwhelming fantasy finish, several metrics suggest optimism for a Lawrence breakout in 2024. He ranked 8th in pass attempts with 564, indicating ample volume, and was 5th in deep ball attempts, highlighting his desire to create big plays down the field. Operating in the league's 2nd fastest pace of play offense further supports his fantasy potential. Additionally, Lawrence contributed value with his legs, ranking 9th in carries (70) and rushing yards (339) among quarterbacks.
The Jaguars' offseason moves also signal potential improvement for Lawrence. Moving on from Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, they added 1st-round pick Brian Thomas and free agent Gabe Davis. Thomas, known for his explosiveness, was a standout in deep catches and yards in college. Meanwhile, Davis proved efficient in the red zone with a high touchdown rate and strong metrics in average depth of target (ADOT).
These upgrades in the receiving corps could enhance Lawrence's upside with more dynamic playmakers around him in a vertical passing game scheme. As Lawrence enters his fourth season with renewed offensive weapons and promising metrics, fantasy managers might find him a compelling value pick with significant breakout potential in 2024.
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Ridley was never a good fit for how Pedersen wanted to use him. Basically just had him lineup as an X deep threat, which was never his game. Lawrence has WRs whom better fit the scheme this season and more mobility than either of the QBs you mentioned.
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·Top 10 potential for sure that you are drafting as mid-level QB2. Gabe Davis and Brian Thoms are a better fit for the type of routes Doug Pederson has been asking his WRs to run on the perimeter than Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones. There is more field stretching ability and big plays with chain movers like Christian Kirk and Evan Engram over the middle. His base rushing volume was there last year ranking in the top 10 in carries and yards for QBs. Lawrence could prove to be a player some analysts were a year too early on as a starting fantasy QB last season.