Dan Mader's Fantasy Football WR Rankings 25th - 36th

Navigating the dynamic landscape of fantasy football wide receivers requires a keen understanding of both statistical trends and situational dynamics within their respective teams. From emerging talents like Tank Dell, poised to ascend in Houston, to established veterans like Stefon Diggs facing new challenges in their team's offensive schemes, each player presents a unique blend of potential and risk. This analysis delves into the production outlooks of wide receivers ranked from 25th to 36th. It examines their past performances, current ADP values, and the factors shaping their fantasy football prospects for the upcoming season.

25.Tank Dell WR - HOU (14), +4 vs. ECR 

It's clear that I'm ahead of the market when it comes to Dell, and I'm confident he will emerge as the top wide receiver in his team's room. Beyond measurable statistics, I place significance on the special chemistry between a wide receiver and quarterback off the field, much like what we've seen with Stafford and Kupp, Burrow and Chase, and notably, the connection between Stroud and Dell, which began before the draft. It translated into immediate success with Dell finishing as WR10 in points per game during the first 12 weeks of his rookie season, surpassing Collins's WR14 ranking.

Dell's metrics also underscore his potential as an elite wide receiver. He ranked 14th in yards per route run with 2.36, 14th in average depth of target at 14.3 yards, and demonstrated prowess as a contested catch receiver, ranking 6th in that category a notable achievement given his size. With such impressive metrics and a strong rapport with his quarterback, Dell is poised to deliver returns on his ADP investment in fantasy drafts and establish himself as the standout receiver in his team's competitive wide receiver room.

26.Tee Higgins WR - CIN (12), +1 vs. ECR 

Tee Higgins is a receiver whose talent is undeniable, but his availability and health have increasingly become concerns, akin to Mike Williams in earlier years. Since his rookie season, Higgins hasn't played a full slate of games, often being active but not fully healthy, which has impacted his production. Last season alone, he missed five games due to various injuries. Heading into the 2023 season, Higgins was drafted as WR15 but finished significantly lower as WR39 on a points-per-game basis. While he did achieve WR15 status in 2022, it remains his best year statistically, yet he hasn't surpassed 1,100 receiving yards or more than 7 touchdowns in any single season so far.

This season, his ADP has adjusted to WR28, reflecting a more realistic valuation that considers both his potential and injury risk. Higgins is now more appropriately seen as a high-end WR3 in fantasy, acknowledging his weekly production history alongside the added risk of injuries. Despite this, he possesses the talent, has a top-tier quarterback in Joe Burrow, and is part of a productive offense that could enable him to exceed his ADP if everything aligns perfectly. His ceiling, however, may be somewhat constrained by the fact that his target share has never exceeded 23% since Ja'Marr Chase joined the team in 2021. In subsequent seasons, it has dipped to 19% and 18%, categorizing him more in the WR3 range in terms of fantasy production. The departure of Tyler Boyd and the introduction of potential replacements like rookie Jermaine Burton or second-year player Andrei Iosivas could potentially boost Higgins's volume, although this remains speculative.

Tier 7

27.Stefon Diggs WR - HOU (14), -2 vs. ECR 

It seems like there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Bills' wide receiver situation heading into the upcoming season. Stefon Diggs, despite his proven talent and consistent production over the years, saw a noticeable decline in his numbers during weeks 11-18 last season under the new offensive scheme led by Joe Brady. His targets per game dropped to 8.3, yards per target fell to 5.43, and yards per route run decreased from 1.44 to 1.0 compared to the first 10 weeks. The coaching change had an impact, as Diggs went from being a WR7 in the early part of the season to WR46 in the ladder half. Now, with multiple talented receivers in Houston's WR group, including Dell and Collins, who have shown they can command significant target shares (23% and 21% respectively), questions arise about how targets will be distributed.

Diggs, typically a perimeter threat, might see competition for targets from the likes of Collins, not to mention the team also has strong options at tight end and running back. Given the uncertainty and the potential for target distribution challenges among the WRs, analysts and fantasy managers alike face a dilemma. Choosing the right WR from this group is tricky, and drafting based on ADP might be the safest approach for now. This strategy suggests selecting the receiver currently being undervalued, implying it might be prudent to monitor preseason developments closely before making a final decision.

28.Nico Collins WR - HOU (14), -13 vs. ECR 

Collins had a remarkable season last year, finishing as WR6 in points per game, showcasing impressive efficiency despite receiving only 106 targets. His performance notably surged when Dell was injured, elevating Collins from WR14 in the first 12 weeks to WR5 from weeks 13 to 18. However, sustaining such high efficiency year-over-year is challenging, as evidenced by concerns surrounding other receivers like Aiyuk.

Adding to Collins's challenge is the presence of Diggs, a proven superstar, and Dell, who demonstrated breakout potential as a rookie. Given these factors, it's plausible that Collins may not exceed the 23% target share he had last season while sharing targets with Dell. Without maintaining superstar efficiency, Collins might face difficulties in meeting expectations. While Nico excelled with 3.24 yards per route run, ranked second in QB rating per target, and secured 8 touchdowns, his ability to deliver fantasy value at his current WR13 ADP hinges on securing a definitive lead role over Dell and Diggs in the team's passing hierarchy.

29.Christian Kirk WR - JAC (12), +1 vs. ECR 

Christian Kirk's 2023 season was cut short due to injury, but despite this setback, he's appropriately valued as a WR3 tier player this year. Finishing as WR35 on a points-per-game basis last season, Kirk has steadily developed chemistry with Trevor Lawrence over recent seasons. Before his injury, Kirk had a slight edge over Calvin Ridley with a 22% to 21% target share for the first 12 weeks.

Looking ahead, Kirk faces competition primarily from Gabe Davis, who typically doesn't command a significant target share, and rookie Brian Thomas. Given this context, Kirk's share could potentially increase closer to the 24% mark he achieved in 2022, when he finished as WR19 in points per game. This upward trajectory in target share, combined with his rapport with Lawrence, positions Kirk well to maintain his status as a reliable fantasy option in the WR3 range for the upcoming season.

30.Zay Flowers WR - BAL (14), -2 vs. ECR 

Zay Flowers had a standout rookie season, finishing as WR32 on a points-per-game basis and quickly becoming Lamar Jackson's primary target with a team-leading 24% target share. Flowers also emerged as a big winner in the offseason, benefiting from the departure of Odell Beckham Jr. and the Ravens' decision to add developmental rookie Devontez Walker, leaving Flowers as the top option among wide receivers. Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor, the other starting WRs, had significantly lower target shares, with Bateman at 13%. Historically, the Ravens' offense under Lamar Jackson has primarily featured one wide receiver and tight end Mark Andrews as fantasy-relevant pass catchers. With this setup, Flowers is well-positioned to maintain his role as the top target and improve on his rookie production.

His success last season wasn't just due to volume; Flowers also excelled in target separation, ranking 7th among all wide receivers with 2.27 yards, highlighting his potential for excellence. Despite these positives, there are considerations that temper expectations slightly. Flowers' touchdown potential is capped due to his natural size, which may limit his effectiveness in the red zone. Additionally, Lamar Jackson's passing touchdown totals have been modest outside of his MVP season in 2019, with Mark Andrews typically serving as the primary scoring threat. Given these factors, I rank Zay Flowers closer to the mid-level WR3 tier rather than the high-end WR3 tier, despite his current ADP suggesting higher expectations. This reflects a cautious approach to his touchdown upside while acknowledging his strong target share and separation skills within the Ravens' offensive structure.

31.Chris Godwin WR - TB (11), +2 vs. ECR 

Godwin's 2023 season was indeed disappointing, finishing well below his WR25 ADP at WR37. Despite commanding a healthy 24% target share, which typically suggests WR2 or WR3 value, he struggled with lackluster production in terms of big plays and touchdowns. His total of three touchdowns and an ADOT ranked 76th at 8.9 yards indicate that while he received ample volume, the explosive plays and scoring opportunities were often directed toward Evans instead.

Despite these challenges, Godwin demonstrated exceptional route-running ability, boasting the second-best route-win rate in the league. This skill suggests that his struggles were not due to his own performance but rather a distribution issue within the offense. Looking ahead, the introduction of Coen's offensive scheme, influenced by McVay's approach, could potentially benefit Godwin. Coen's emphasis on featuring intermediate route-winning wide receivers aligns well with Godwin's strengths. However, there remains a realistic concern that Mayfield's tendencies may lean towards targeting Evans in critical fantasy situations, irrespective of scheme adjustments. As a result, while there is optimism for a rebound, especially with Godwin's route-running prowess and potential scheme adjustments, cautious optimism is advised due to the lingering uncertainty around target distribution and quarterback preferences in the Buccaneers' offense.

32.Calvin Ridley WR - TEN (5), +2 vs. ECR 

Calvin Ridley's return to football after an extended absence resulted in a WR26 finish on a per-game basis primarily fueled by high volume. His prowess in the red zone, where he ranked third in targets, contributed to 8 touchdowns, yet his efficiency metrics paint a less flattering picture. Ridley struggled with deep ball targets, ranking 60th in yards per target at 7.5, and faced challenges in contested catch situations, ranking 66th. His target separation and route win rate also ranked poorly, highlighting potential concerns about his ability to regain previous form at age 29. With fewer scoring opportunities and potentially reduced volume in the Titans' offense compared to his time in Jacksonville, Ridley's current valuation as a back-end WR3 appears fitting, reflecting both his past accomplishments and current challenges.

33.Diontae Johnson WR - CAR (11), +2 vs. ECR 

Diontae Johnson is poised to be a draft-day steal this fantasy football season. Despite a setback with a hamstring injury early last year, which sidelined him until week 6, Johnson managed to return without aggravating the injury. At 28 years old, he remains in his prime and has consistently commanded a substantial 25-27% target share over the past three seasons, making him a reliable WR2/WR3 option.

Despite dealing with inconsistent quarterback play and subpar coaching last year, Johnson still finished as the WR31 on a points-per-game basis. Now, with the potential for the improved play calling of Dave Canales' target-focused game planning, similar to what he executed in Tampa Bay and Seattle, Johnson's value is primed to exceed current draft expectations. Don't sleep on Johnson's ability to deliver consistent production and potentially outperform his ADP this season.

Tier 8

34.George Pickens WR - PIT (9), -8 vs. ECR 

It feels like now or never for George Pickens to break out. Despite finishing as WR33 last season with over 1100 yards on 83 receptions and 5 touchdowns, Pickens is poised for a significant opportunity in his third year. The changes at quarterback and offensive coordinator for his team bring a common thread: a focus on targeting the No. 1 X receiver heavily. Under Arthur Smith, despite some frustrations, the offense consolidated volume to key players like Drake London and Kyle Pitts, who led the team with 23% and 18% target shares respectively. Russell Wilson, known for his proficiency in the red zone, targeted Courtland Sutton heavily with 10 touchdowns and a remarkable 39% team target share in the end zone. Similarly, Justin Fields provided D.J. Moore with an elite 30% target share, highlighting the potential for a featured receiver in this system.

With Diontae Johnson's departure, Pickens stands out as the most established target earner in his team's receiving corps, inheriting a significant 24% of team targets. Pickens' current ADP reflects perfect value, offering minimal risk of disappointment given his expected target share and high potential for a breakout in his third NFL season. This setup positions him as a prime candidate for a leap into fantasy football relevance, backed by both opportunity and historical usage trends under his new coaching and quarterback regime.

35.Christian Watson WR - GB (10), +5 vs. ECR 

Christian Watson's potential hinges on his ability to stay healthy this season, a concern the Packers have addressed diligently during the offseason. Reports indicate that Watson underwent specific training to correct a muscle imbalance in his legs, a problem that had previously plagued him. With significant improvement achieved in balancing his muscle development, Watson is poised to exceed expectations if he can maintain his availability.

Despite facing challenges last season with Jordan Love's development and a crowded receiving corps, Watson still managed to showcase his talent, finishing as WR32 in points per game during weeks 4-13. His career-high 10% touchdown rate underscores his big-play capability and potential to outperform his current ADP of WR44. While target share remains uncertain given the Packers' depth at receiver, Watson's efficiency and knack for making big plays make him a compelling option to outshine his draft position this season.

36.Rashee Rice WR - KC (6), +0 vs. ECR 

Accurate projections for Rashee Rice this season remain challenging until his suspension status is clarified. However, examining his performance from last year offers some insights. Rice emerged as a starter in Week 7 and impressively ranked as the WR16 in fantasy points per game from that point forward. His impact as a rookie under Andy Reid is notable, particularly given the struggles of other wide receivers like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, and Justin Watson. From Weeks 7-18, Rice secured a 21% target share, and was on pace for over 1,100 yards and 8 touchdowns on 126 targets over a full season. This level of production seems sustainable, but it's essential to consider the broader context.

Despite Rice's strong target share, the next most targeted wide receiver, Watson, only had a 10% share, while Travis Kelce, though the season's lead target, fell slightly behind Rice during his starting stretch with a 20% share. Mahomes' tendency to distribute the ball among various pass catchers was evident. The addition of legitimate target earners like Hollywood Brown and first-round draft pick Xavier Worthy introduces further competition. Both are strong candidates to exceed Watson's 10% target share, potentially cutting into Rice's opportunities. If Rice's target share drops below 20%, it will be challenging for him to produce WR3 tier numbers without a high touchdown rate, especially given the need for KC to prepare for life potentially without him due to suspension.

Ultimately, Rice's fantasy value hinges on maintaining a significant target share in a crowded receiving corps and navigating potential suspension issues. His ability to replicate last year's impact will depend on Mahomes consolidating targets and Rice's role in the evolving offense.

As fantasy football managers prepare for the 2024 season, the wide receivers ranked from 25 to 36 offer a spectrum of opportunities and challenges. From Tank Dell's promising trajectory in Houston to the adjustment periods faced by veterans like Stefon Diggs and Calvin Ridley in new team environments, each player's fantasy value hinges on their ability to adapt to changing circumstances and capitalize on opportunities within their offenses. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for drafting strategies, ensuring managers build resilient rosters capable of navigating the uncertainties of the upcoming season while maximizing potential fantasy production.