The Adam Thielen Line - Running Back Disparity Theory for Best Ball Fantasy Football

I am constantly pounding the table for why dynamic running backs should still be drafted highly and often in best ball fantasy football drafts. I am often met with contradicting opinions. Traditionally, the wide receiver position has been the most valued amongst the best ball community. It is believed by the majority of players that it is easier to hit on late round running backs for value as compared to the wide receiver position, when in fact I believe the reality is quite the opposite. The disparity between the elite running backs and all that falter in their wake is much greater than the difference between your WR 1 and your WR 30. Because of this disparity, I believe that players should be prioritizing pass catching running backs in the first six rounds of their best ball drafts. Let’s dive into last year's numbers to get a sense of the disparity theory.

Underdog Fantasy Point Totals per Season in 2023 for Wide Receiver

The True Gamebreakers

There were two of the most elite wide receivers you could draft in best ball in 2023 in the history of fantasy football. Ceedee Lamb and Tyreek Hill both had tremendous seasons and crossed the 300 fantasy point threshold for the season.

Ceedee Lamb - 335.7 fantasy points 135 rec 1749 yds 12 TD (and 113 yds/2 TD rushing) 

Tyreek Hill - 316.9 fantasy points 119 rec 1799 yds 13 TD

The Second Tier

Tyreek and Ceedee had monster outlier seasons as compared to past players, as they both flirted with 1800 receiving yards (once thought of as unheard of). The difference between these elite WR and the next tier down is smaller than you think, at about approximately 100 points. Clearly, Puka Nacua was a massive outlier himself last season, as he was drafted extremely late and had a historic rookie season. AJ Brown is an elite WR and although he tailed off towards the end of the year, he also had a great season. Ja’Marr Chase suffered through injuries to both himself and his quarterback, as did Justin Jefferson, preventing both from providing their usually elite production. These players generally will manage around 240 fantasy points with the potential of flirting with the 300 point tier should they also have monster seasons. However, it is incredibly hard to surpass the 300 point plateau as you generally need to be flirting with breaking the wide receiver record for receiving yards in a single season to achieve this.

AJB 236.6 fantasy points, Puka 246 fantasy points, Chase 212.7 fantasy points, JJ 198.9 fantasy points

The Third Tier

This next tier down is where the numbers really start to kick in. Because of the amount of WR typically drafted in the first two rounds of fantasy football best ball drafts, these players are often drafted in the second round. Observe that already, the disparity between the previous tier of production and this tier is negligible to non-existent. Only AJ Brown out produced the WRs drafted after him. In this range of WR, we also begin to have many questions about the status of the players and their ability to out produce such a high ADP. For example, Drake London has never surpassed 1000 yards or 4 touchdowns but is being drafted based on his potential output with Kirk Cousins. Marvin Harrison Jr is being drafted as if he's being projected to have a historic rookie season, but unlike Puka Nacua, it's priced into his ADP. Garrett Wilson is being drafted as if Aaron Rodgers will be healthy all season (or that Tyrod Taylor can support a top 12 fantasy option and also stay on the field).

Brandon Aiyuk 211.7 fantasy points, Nico Collins 220.4 fantasy points, Chris Olave 187.8 fantasy points

Even if we use Jaylen Waddle's season the year he was healthy and good, he had 75 receptions for 1356 yards and 8 touchdowns. This equated to 221.7 fantasy points.

The Fourth Tier

At this point in the draft, we have now moved several tiers down into rounds 3 to 4. The lowest scoring of these players was Terry McLaurin, who scored 170 fantasy points. This is only 50 fantasy points less than the tier 2 rounds above him. Michael Pittman and Amari Cooper may be viewed as boring draft picks, but they are consistent fantasy producers who both came close to the 200 fantasy point ceiling on the season. Both of these players remain in the same situations they were in last year, potentially with more solidified quarterback play, and yet are being drafted several rounds after Chris Olave who scored less fantasy points last year. Even if you look at the 'elite production' from the tier above these players, it's a small disparity in terms of fantasy points on the season.

Michael Pittman 195.7 ftsy points, Stefon Diggs 220.3 ftsy points, George Pickens 177.3 ftsy points, Amari Cooper 191 ftsy points, Terry McLaurin 169.7 ftsy points

The Final Tiers

At this point, we have now jumped down to the middle to low tiers of the draft (rounds 5-10) and yet we are still finding multiple players able to score between 150-180 fantasy points. At most, this is a disparity of 50-70 fantasy points from the second tier of wide receivers.

Chris Godwin 167.7 ftsy points, Deandre Hopkins 186.1 ftsy points, Courtland Sutton 160.7 ftsy points, Tyler Lockett 162.9 ftsy points, Brandin Cooks 146.2 ftsy points

The Adam Thielen Line

Now we reach what I call the Adam Thielen line. Adam Thielen represents the point in the draft where almost every running back that comes after him scored less than 100 fantasy points last year, or is an unproven rookie drafted in the 3rd or 4th. Meanwhile, the wide receivers after this point still generally are able to average approximately 100 fantasy points.

Adam Thielen had 103 rec 1014 yds 4 TD (179.5 fantasy points) with the Carolina Panthers in 2023. The year before, Thielen had 70 rec 716 yds 6 TD (145 fantasy points) in his final year with the Minnesota Vikings. Even with his terrible season prior, Thielen only scored 35 less fantasy points. This is because it is simply easier for wide receivers to produce fantasy points at a higher level in best ball at all levels than it is for running backs beyond the elite tier of starters.

Now let us take a deeper look at the fantasy point totals for running backs and how they compare.

Underdog Fantasy Point Totals per Season in 2023 for Running Back

True Gamebreaker

There was only one player in best ball that scored a whopping 357.8 fantasy points on the season and was clearly the best fantasy football asset to own last year... AND HIS NAME IS CMC! (blaring horns)

Christian McCaffrey was so far and away the best fantasy football running back for best ball that the next closest player in tier two was a distant runner up.

Next Closest… The Second Tier

Breece Hall finsihed with 252.5 fantasy points. Already in this first tier down from the best fantasy running back to the second best fantasy running back, we’ve lost 100 fantasy points. A really good, strong RB range to finish on the season is 200/240 fantasy points. Last year, this included players like Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, Travis Etienne, Derrick Henry, James Cook, Joe Mixon, Rachaad White, Raheem Mostert (255.2). Most of these players either had incredibly high volume, touchdowns, or were heavily involved in their team's passing games. This last note is the most important as it seems obvious yet is overlooked. There are only a select number of elite running backs that are the primary ball carrier for their team but also present as an essential part of the passing game. This is why Christian McCaffrey was able to finish so far ahead of the pack. In my opinion, the only players that have an opportunity to even come close to CMC numbers are players like Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall and maybe as darkhorses, Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley.

The Third Tier

Guys who just missed the 200 fantasy point ceiling on the season include players who still had good fantasy seasons. These are players like Devon Achane, Kenneth Walker, David Montgomery, Alvin Kamara, Najee Harris, James Conner, Isaiah Pacheco, Tony Pollard, Gus Edwards, etc. Several of these players were already operating near their ceiling. Some players with potential either for growth or to bounce back, like Pacheco, Pollard and Achane, could potentially break into the second tier of running backs. Here again, we are seeing an average of 20-50 fantasy points difference, but we are even further away from the elite production of Christian McCaffrey. Furthermore, several of these running back options simply have no reality wherein they approach the kind of fantasy production CMC is offering.

The Adam Thielen Line and How this Relates to Running Backs 

Once again as a reminder, Adam Thielen last year had 103 receptions for 1014 yards and 4 touchdowns. This was good for 179.5 fantasy points. The year before, he had only 70 receptions for 716 yards and 6 touchdowns and was considered washed. That year, he scored 145 fantasy points.

This season, Adam Thielen is being drafted at an ADP of 159.4.

Just above Adam Thielen you are potentially drafting running backs like Tyler Allgeier (128.6), Jaylen Wright (rookie), Kimani Vidal (rookie) or Jaleel McLaughlin (90.5). Kimani Vidal presents as a possible outlier here.

Just below Adam Thielen you are potentially drafting running backs like Chuba Hubbard (163), Antonio Gibson (103.4), Ray Davis (rookie), Bucky Irving (rookie), JK Dobbins (inj), Elijah Mitchell (44.5)

Not only were none of these players able to come anywhere close to approaching the 200 point barrier for fantasy running backs, the only player that came close to outscoring Adam Thielen last season was Chubba Hubbard. Thielen outscored many of the other players by an average of 70+ fantasy points.

Comparitively, the wide receivers going in the same range as Adam Thielen are producing much closer to his output. On average, even really bad wide receiver seasons produce at least 100 fantasy points per year. Whether you are in a best ball format that values individual weekly performances or are looking to add cumulative scoring, it is easier to target late round wide receivers versus late round running backs.

Wandale Robinson (103.2), Roman Wilson (rookie), Troy Franklin (rookie), Michael Wilson (95.5), Tyler Boyd (112.3), Darius Slayton (126), DJ Chark (98), Elijah Moore (102.6)

The sheer amount of running backs capable of breaking the 200 point barrier also pales in comparison to wide receivers who can score between 100-150 fantasy points when you are in the last rounds of your fantasy football best ball drafts. Not only are the WR drafted in that range out scoring the running backs drafted in the same range by a substantial margin, but the disparity between the amount of fantasy points they score is smaller compared to the elite players at the same position. A really terrible wide receiver season of 50 receptions for 500 yards and 5 touchdowns is more valuable than most of the running backs you will be drafting in that same range, and it's closer in terms of fantasy points to Ceedee Lamb than a running back in the same range would be to CMC.

Not only is the amount of running backs smaller in general both in terms of how they are utilized on the field, how they produce statistically and how they are drafted in fantasy football, but there are a smaller percentage of them that have true game-breaking ability in best ball. The amount of elite tier running backs in terms of their running and receiving skills are few and far between. They're almost always drafted in single digit rounds, even rookies and players coming off of injury. This means if you are typically waiting on running back, your odds of actually hitting on 3-4 viable running backs past round 8 are much lower than if you are targeting wide receivers capable of simply putting up more than eight hundred yards and between five and eight touchdowns.

Finally, the spike week availability of any wide receiver compared to any running back is statistically more likely, even if it is more inconsistent. This is to say, a wide receiver catching a long pass for a touchdown is worth more than a running back falling into the endzone on a one yard carry. It also means that on any given week, a wide receiver can match elite production in easier ways than most running backs. This is especially true of the elite pass catching running backs, as the disparity between their production and the rest of the pack is so much larger than at other positions, like wide receiver. So make sure you load up on them early and often!